Posts Tagged 'djokovic'

The dominance of Novak Djokovic

© Getty Images

2015 has been Novak Djokovic‘s year. The Serb has won eight ATP World Tour titles, three of which were Grand Slams. He has accumulated an impressive 72-5 win-loss record with four of his losses coming in title matches. Only one player (Roger Federer) has beaten him more than once this year and comparisons are already being made to his successful 2011 season. His biggest regret will be his failure to capture the French Open title after dethroning Rafael Nadal in the quarter-finals, the man who has denied him on many occasions. The tears on the podium said it all, reflecting on a lost chance. Nevertheless, this has been a season that will go down in the history books along with Federer’s 2006-7 and Nadal’s 2010.

Is Djokovic better than he was four years ago? A breakdown of both his seasons is provided below along with my personal view below.

Djokovic Analysis

Even though the 2015 season has not concluded yet (Djokovic is still scheduled to play in Paris and London) we can safely say that this has been the best season of his career. He is the overwhelming favourite to beat Tsonga in the Shanghai final (he leads 13-6) and is a strong contender to take out both Paris and London, titles he won last year. Victory in Shanghai and Paris would break his 2011 record of five wins and be an all-time record for most Masters 1000 wins in a year. That would put him ahead on all the categories listed above and would justify why this has been his best yet. The Belgrade native is injury free and is in the prime of his life. Novak Djokovic, take a bow this has been your year.

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The end of the road for Nadal?

© Reuters/Alessia Pierdomenico

Before Rafael Nadal could step into the world of competitive tennis, he first had to beat his fragile body. A serious foot injury at 19 should of ended his career but his love for the game prevented him from walking away. To conquer his foot problem, the Spaniard wore specially made shoes, fully aware that his knees and back would buckle under the pressure. Many tennis pundits had predicted a short career for Nadal. But after turning pro in 2001, the Mallorcan has racked up an impressive 14 Grand Slams, 27 ATP World Tour 1000 events and an Olympic Gold Medal at the 2008 Beijing Olympics.

His career has been plagued by injury with three Grand Slam no shows in the past three years and have led many to question whether he can still challenge for the top echelon. 2015 has been one of his worst seasons since turning pro, for the first time in a decade he doesn’t have a Grand Slam to his name. Nadal has only beaten two top 10 players this year and has seen his ranking fall to No. 8. The clay season like many times before has offered him a safety blanket, but that hasn’t been the case this year. His record is 26 wins to 6 losses (81%).

For many that would be a spectacular record, but not for someone like Nadal who has gone most seasons undefeated or suffering the odd loss or two on crushed brick. Calls have grown louder to make changes to his coaching team or even get married to reverse his imminent slump. There is no doubt that his style of play is conducive to injury but few would of expected such a swift decline. He is no longer physically imposing like a few years ago and more and more players are hitting the ball harder, forcing Nadal on the back foot.

On a more positive note, the 29 year-old sits comfortably at No. 7 in the race to London and has won three titles this year with an opportunity to add a fourth in Beijing. As recently as last season, he was an Australian Open finalist and French Open champion with Federer’s all time Grand Slam record seemingly close. In the space of twelve months, that has evaporated with Novak Djokovic being the biggest beneficiary with no consistent challenger at the Grand Slam level apart from an aging Federer.

What has been most surprising is that fact that Nadal has been quite frank about his decline saying things like “I’m not the player I once was” and “I might not win another Grand Slam.” It makes me wonder as to how a player can go about winning matches on a consistent basis with that kind of mindset. Opponents will that as ammunition for e.g. Dustin Brown at Wimbledon. The problem is not a physical one but a mental one. This is where a super coach can be of benefit in restoring the equilibrium and instilling belief into Nadal that he can once again contend for major titles.

Assessing Federer’s longevity

A few weeks ago, I stumbled upon this article which detailed a young Spanish gentleman who fell into a coma in late 2004 only to awaken in August of this year. At that time, the tennis atmosphere was very different, Federer only won his 4th Slam by winning the US Open that year and Djokovic and Nadal were relative unknowns. 11 years later, the Swiss is still a major force in the sport, currently ranked No. 2 and reaching two Grand Slam finals in 2015. Nowadays, tennis pundits love to debate whether he’s the greatest ever by naming of all his achievements and accolades. Most would not dispute that he’s the greatest ever while others would argue how that could be the case when he fares with his modern contemporaries.

One area that I feel that doesn’t get much concentration and analysis is how Federer fared in his age group for e.g. Hewitt, Safin, Nalbandian and Roddick. Below is the year end rankings for 2004. How did he fare?

© ATP World Tour

2004 rankings

1. Andy Roddick

Reached three Wimbledon finals, with the 2009 edition being the most memorable with a gallant five set loss to Federer. Didn’t fare well against Federer, only winning 3 of the 24 matches they played. A constant fixture in the top 10, before retiring after the 2012 US Open.

2. Lleyton Hewitt

The only active player on that 2004 list apart from Federer and has announced that he’s retiring after the 2016 Australian Open. Unfortunate to have played in Federer’s era, even though he had his measure early on only to lose to him 15 straight times.

3. Marat Safin

Hugely talented Russian player who called it quits after the 2009 season. Only beat Federer twice in 12 meetings but his win against the dominant Swiss at the 2005 Australian Open was the most memorable of them all. Regarded as an underachiever.

4. Carlos Moya

Never managed to beat Federer in seven meetings but we shouldn’t forget that Moya was a French Open champion and a former World No. 1. Found himself ranked No. 5 in 2004 after a consistent season in the Masters Series tournaments even though he was past his prime.

5. Tim Henman

Most will be surprised, but the Brit actually had Federer’s measure in their first six meetings before Federer blitzed their last six. Henman reached two Grand Slam semi-finals in 2004 and enjoyed a resurgence after a disappointing 2003. I’m sure his failure to win Wimbledon will be his biggest regret.

6. Guillermo Coria

The pair only met three times, with Federer winning all three. Coria, regarded as a clay court specialist never recovered from his 2004 French Open loss to Gaudio and went on a downward spiral after that. The former World No. 3 virtually disappeared from tour after 2006 before retiring in 2009.

7. Andre Agassi

Agassi, the ageless American who at that time was 34 and still striving to be the best. Fared well early on against Federer, winning their first three clashes before losing the next eight. Their matches at the 2004 and 2005 US Open stand out from the rest.

8. David Nalbandian

The talented Argentine, who caused Federer a world of trouble early on before injuries dented his progress was a former World No. 3 and a former Wimbledon finalist. Their highlight match was no doubt their finals clash at the 2005 Tennis Masters Cup, with Nalbandian winning in five after losing the first two sets.

9. Gaston Gaudio

Gaudio, another bunch of talented Argentinian tennis players crashed onto the scene by winning the 2004 French Open. His matches against will be ones he’ll least want to remember, with a double bagel against the Swiss in the semi-finals of the Tennis Masters Cup. Retired in 2011.

US Open 2015: Players to watch

The final Grand Slam kicks off this coming Monday, and as always critics and pundits are keen to rate each players chances of capturing the title. Here’s my personal take.

  1. Novak Djokovic (SRB): Arguably the player to beat in 2015 and is hoping to capture his third major this year, a feat he achieved in 2011. He is in excellent form at the moment, reaching finals in Canada and Cincinnati. Has reached the semis or better at the US Open since 2007 and that streak looks set to continue in 2015.
  2. Roger Federer (SUI): Built on his resurgence in 2014 by once again reaching the final at Wimbledon before falling to his nemesis Djokovic. Has had mixed fortunes at the Grand Slams this year but will be buoyed by his recent title win in Cincinnati. Hasn’t captured the US Open since 2008 but would expect his name in the second week of the tournament.
  3. Andy Murray (GBR): Bounced back superbly in 2015 after a dismal 2014 to his standards. Back troubles seem to be behind him and has reached the semi-finals or better at the Grand Slams this year. Recently clinched the Canadian Open against Djokovic, ending an eight match losing streak against the Serbian. Has a tricky opener against Kyrgios.
  4. Stan Wawrinka (SUI): Proven that he’s no one-slam wonder by winning the French title against the heavy favourite Djokovic. Has had mixed results of late but would expect him to reach the latter stages of the tournament. Been unfairly dragged into the Nick Kyrgios controversy, and is scheduled to meet the controversial Australian in the quarter-finals.
  5. Kei Nishikori (JPN): Made history last year at the Open by becoming the first Asian born man to reach a Grand Slam final. Built on his success in 2014, by winning titles in Memphis, Barcelona and the Citi Open. Beat Nadal for the first time in his career in Canada before falling to Murray. Faces a potential rematch with Cilic in the quarter-finals.
  6. Marin Cilic (CRO): Not to take anything away from him, but I’m sure few would of expected the tall Croatian to be last year’s winner. Has struggled in 2015, with a quarter-final at Wimbledon his only noteworthy mention. Hard to see him replicating his success from last year but does have a good draw to make at least the quarter-finals.
  7. Rafael Nadal (ESP): It’s hard to believe that on his last visit to New York he was hoisting the trophy. 2015 hasn’t been a good year for the Spaniard, for the first time since 2009 he hasn’t won Roland Garros and his woes at Wimbledon continued. Has had to resort to the lower tier to find form. Making the quarters would be a respectable acheivement.

It doesn’t get any better than this

© Getty Images

Wimbledon has just about come and gone and once again, Djokovic and Federer find themselves at the opposite sides of the net as they play for the grand prize. It is virtually impossible to pick a winner at this stage, even though the odds have Djokovic as the slight favourite. For the first time in his career, the Serbian has reached the final of the first three Grand Slams of the year, dropping only two sets on route to the final.

On the other hand, Federer produced a scintillating performance on Friday to beat local hope Andy Murray in straight sets. The Swiss is through to his 10th Wimbledon final and hoping to erase the pain of last year with an eighth title, steering clear of Renshaw and Sampras. Leading up to Wimbledon, the 33-year old won the Gerry Weber Open for a record eighth time, becoming only the third player to win the same tournament that number of times.

Few would know how Djokovic would rebound from such a crushing defeat to Stan Wawrinka just weeks earlier at the French Open but he is mentally resilient and has demonstrated that he can overcome them. Nevertheless, 2015 has been a very fruitful season for Djokovic, with titles in Australia, Indian Wells, Miami, Monte Carlo and Rome. Only two other players apart from Wawrinka have had his measure this year, Ivo Karlovic and Federer.

The key for Federer in this match would be to do exactly what he did to Murray in the semi-final, keep the rallies short, serve big and be aggressive. But of course that is easier said than done because Djokovic doesn’t have a weak second serve and enjoys offense more than defense. Long drawn out rallies will only favour his opponent and before he knows it, he’ll be down two sets to love and serving to stay in it.

Regardless of Federer’s performance, Djokovic is going to have to play at a very high level if he is to capture his third title at the Championships. Despite being the heavy favourite going into last years final, Djokovic bucked at various stages, most noticeably in the fourth set, enabling Federer to send it into a decider. The things that are going for him are that he is the younger of the two, the more superior on the back of the court and the one in form.

Prediction: Federer d. Djokovic in four sets